Score another one for the online prediction markets: as usual, TradeSports got almost everything right in the U.S. midterm elections; including the Virginia and Montana senate races if they both go the Democrats’ way, as seems likely. (Interestingly, they still thought there was a 70% chance Republicans would keep control of the Senate, even though they got all the individual races right). The article doesn’t mention it, but Intrade, another major prediction market site, this one without the sports betting, had similarly correct numbers the morning of the race. If any single political analyst had been this consistently right about everything, they’d be famous.
If I were a real marketer I’d take this opportunity to do a full marketing blitz for my new site, Betocracy, which currently provides the easiest way for anyone to create their own prediction markets, and take advantage of the forecasting strength they provide. Sadly, it looks like for the time being I’m just going to keep mentioning it on my own site.